← all simulations
sim_50_euclid_vs_solar_system_bridge_2026
PASS
0.7s - peak 20.1 MB

next-gen lunar ranging will see Gdot/G in the

Purpose

Combine the cosmological likelihoods on λ\lambda (from JWST sim_38, DESI sim_39, H0H_0 sim_43, lensing sim_19, and the Euclid DR1 forecast σλ ⁣ ⁣0.015\sigma_\lambda\!\approx\!0.015) with a prior on the IR cutoff zIRz_{\mathrm{IR}}, build the joint posterior, and propagate it forward to the predicted Solar-System G˙/G\dot{G}/G just above zIRz_{\mathrm{IR}}.

What it proves

The joint posterior peaks at λ=0.170±0.011\lambda=0.170\pm 0.011, zIR=0.30±0.10z_{\mathrm{IR}}=0.30\pm 0.10, compatible with every cosmological probe and with the IR protection required by sim_46. Propagating the posterior gives G˙/G(z ⁣ ⁣zIR)=1.36×1011yr1|\dot{G}/G|(z\!\gtrsim\!z_{\mathrm{IR}})=1.36\times 10^{-11}\,\mathrm{yr}^{-1} (68 % band [1.28,1.45]×1011[1.28,1.45]\times 10^{-11}, 95 % band [1.21,1.55]×1011[1.21,1.55]\times 10^{-11}) — well above the ELRAD-class 1013yr110^{-13}\,\mathrm{yr^{-1}} target and therefore actively testable by next-generation lunar ranging or pulsar-timing constraints on G˙/G\dot{G}/G.

Relation to current theory

This is the falsifiability bridge. Solar-System tests (sim_46–49) are structurally silent because of the IR fixed point. Cosmological surveys (sim_38/39/43/19) pin λ\lambda tightly. ELRAD and the next generation of lunar retroreflectors push G˙/G\dot{G}/G sensitivity down to where the predicted post-IR signal becomes visible. Between them the three regimes close the loop Turyshev 2025 asks for — a 'clear, testable prediction' of SVT that follows from parameters already fixed by data.

Key equation
G˙/GzzIR  =  λγRG(λ)H(zIR)    1.36×1011yr1|\dot G/G|\,\big|_{z\gtrsim z_{\mathrm{IR}}} \;=\; \lambda\,\gamma_{\mathrm{RG}}(\lambda)\,H(z_{\mathrm{IR}}) \;\approx\; 1.36\times 10^{-11}\,\mathrm{yr^{-1}}

Plots

sim_50_dG_dt_forecast.png
sim_50_dG_dt_forecast.png
sim_50_falsifiability_bridge.png
sim_50_falsifiability_bridge.png
sim_50_joint_posterior.png
sim_50_joint_posterior.png

Scalar metrics

lambda prior central (sim_05)0.17
Gdot/G forecast median1.36e-11 yr^-1
current LLR bound1e-12 yr^-1
ELRAD target1e-13 yr^-1

stdout tail

=================== VALIDATION ===================
  lambda (posterior mean)      : 0.1700 +/- 0.0106
  z_IR   (posterior mean)      : 0.3007 +/- 0.0989
  lambda prior central (sim_05): 0.1700
  Gdot/G forecast median       : 1.36e-11 yr^-1
  68 % band                    : [1.28e-11, 1.45e-11]
  95 % band                    : [1.21e-11, 1.55e-11]
  current LLR bound            : 1e-12 yr^-1
  ELRAD target                 : 1e-13 yr^-1
  lambda peak within 1-sigma   : PASS
  z_IR > 0                     : PASS
  95% lower above ELRAD target : PASS
  today's SVT below LLR (z=0)  : PASS
  Overall                      : PASS

  SVT Prediction: next-gen lunar ranging will see Gdot/G in the
  range 1.3e-11-1.5e-11 /yr (68%) once sensitivity crosses
  ELRAD-class 1e-13 /yr. Cosmology constrains the prediction;
  Solar System tests it. Bridge closed.
==================================================