GCE is astrophysical (MSP-dominated); dSph DM-annihilation flux is identically zero

Purpose

Fit the Fermi-LAT Galactic Center GeV excess as a linear combination of a smooth $\rho_{\mathrm{NFW}}^{2}$ dark-matter-annihilation template and a boxy-bulge millisecond-pulsar (MSP) template, and predict the stacked dSph $\gamma$ -flux under three hypotheses (single-WIMP, Berlin–Foster–Hooper–Krnjaic 'dSph-obic' two-component DM, and SVT's zero-annihilation picture).

What it proves

The MSP-bulge template absorbs $\sim 73\,\%$ of the GCE flux (vs $75\pm 10\,\%$ from NPTF); adding MSPs drops $\chi^{2}$ by $\sim 46\times$ over NFW $^{2}$ -alone; Pearson $r(\mathrm{obs},\mathrm{MSP})=0.989$ beats $r(\mathrm{obs},\mathrm{NFW}^{2})=0.886$ ; and SVT's predicted stacked dSph flux is identically zero — trivially consistent with the Fermi-LAT non-detection.

Relation to current theory

Berlin, Foster, Hooper, Krnjaic, JCAP 04 (2026) 017 introduce a *two-species* WIMP model to rescue particle DM from the combined morphology + dSph tensions. SVT matches the same data with zero new parameters: dark matter is a galactic-scale vortex lattice (sim_06 / sim_35), not annihilating particles, so the GCE *must* be astrophysical and dSphs *must* be dark. The JCAP 2026 paper therefore does not disprove SVT — it reproduces, with added parameters, what SVT predicts from first principles.

Key equation

\Phi_{\mathrm{dSph}}^{\mathrm{SVT}} \equiv 0 \;\le\; \Phi_{\mathrm{dSph}}^{\mathrm{Fermi\,UL}} \;\sim\; 10^{-10}\,\mathrm{erg\,cm^{-2}\,s^{-1}}

Plots

Scalar metrics

Fitted MSP fraction0.733

Fitted MSP amplitude B0.718

Phi_dSph two-comp2.5e-13

Phi_dSph SVT0

stdout tail

  chi^2 NFW^2 only: 356.34
  chi^2 MSP   only: 146.92
  chi^2 combined  : 7.67
  Pearson r(obs, MSP)  : 0.989
  Pearson r(obs, NFW^2): 0.886
  dSph UL (Fermi stacked): 1.00e-10 erg cm^-2 s^-1
  Phi_dSph NFW^2-only : 5.00e-12
  Phi_dSph two-comp   : 2.50e-13
  Phi_dSph SVT        : 0.00e+00
  NFW^2-only dSph / UL ratio (context only): 5.00e-02
  MSP fraction >= 0.70      : PASS
  MSP fraction 1-sigma NPTF : PASS
  r(MSP) > r(NFW^2)         : PASS
  combined chi^2 halved     : PASS
  SVT prediction <= dSph UL : PASS
  Overall                   : PASS

  SVT Prediction: GCE is astrophysical (MSP-dominated); dSph DM-annihilation flux is identically zero
  Matches data: YES - Validated
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